Hear us roar..., March 7, 2007

"If women were the only voters, the Democrats would win in a landslide every time. If men were the only voters, the GOP would be the left-wing party."

- Amy Gardner, West Wing Season 3

The EMILY's List Luncheon yesterday displayed in its full glory the power of women in politics: as office-holders, contributors and voters. More than 1,400 people packed the ballroom at the Convention Center to honor Speaker Nancy Pelosi, hear from our newest Democratic Senators Amy Klobuchar and Claire McCaskill and ride the leading edge of the wave of women who will be working to elect the first women president – Senator Hillary Clinton.

Senator Clinton's campaign kicked off their "Women for Hillary" campaign yesterday, launching a national effort to turn-out women voters and engage women as supporters of the campaign.

As I sit here, I have a dozen requests on my desk from journalists wanting to discuss the power of women voters in the Presidential election, so I thought I would share with you some new analysis of national polling and some key facts on the Gender Gap.

Women comprise a majority of Americans (51%), a majority of consumers, the majority of college graduates (57%) and, most importantly for presidential candidates, the majority of presidential voters (54%). As Chris Cillizza points out in his blog on the luncheon,

"...Clinton's gender in a Democratic primary is a major advantage. According to figures provided by Clinton's campaign, 54 percent of the general electorate will be female. That number could near 60 percent in a Democratic primary. If Clinton wins even half of those votes, she will sit in a very strong position to win the nomination."

Two X's in the chromosome equal lots of D's in the Congress and a Democrat in the White House

Election after election shows that among female voters, the "gender gap"— the difference in voting behavior of men and women — leans overwhelmingly in the Democrats' favor. In 2006, women voted for the Democratic federal candidates with a 9-point gender gap, enabling a Democratic wave to take back Congress. (Note the Mid-term election gap was smaller not because of less support from women but more support for Dems from men!) In presidential elections the gender gap is even larger: 17% in 2004, 22% in 2000 and 17% in 1996.

Hillary Clinton's efforts to speak to women is paying off in the Democratic primary electorate. A new analysis which is now available on our website shows that while Clinton remains the favorite among Democratic men, her support among women gives her an immense advantage over her opponents in primary polling. Clinton has a national gender gap advantage of 8% and her state-by-state advantage ranges up to 16%.

State

Total

Women

Men

Gender
Advantage

National

Clinton: 29
Obama: 18
Edwards: 13
Gore: 11

Clinton: 32
Obama: 16
Edwards: 16
Gore: 13

Clinton: 24
Obama: 21
Edwards: 10
Gore: 9

+8

Florida

Clinton: 49
Obama: 13
Edwards: 7

Clinton: 55
Obama: 15
Edwards: 4

Clinton: 40
Obama: 8
Edwards: 12

+15

Iowa

Clinton:  24
Obama:  18
Edwards:  24
Vilsack:  9

Clinton: 28
Edwards: 21

Clinton: 20
Edwards: 27

+8

New Hampshire

Clinton: 27
Obama: 23
Edwards: 13

Clinton: 32
Obama: 27

 

Clinton: 17
Obama: 28

 

+15

New York

Clinton: 47
Obama: 16
Edwards: 7
Gore: 11

Clinton: 52
Obama: 15
Edwards: 8
Gore: 7

Clinton: 41
Obama: 16
Edwards: 7
Gore: 7

+11

New Jersey

Clinton: 30
Obama: 16
Edwards: 8
Gore: 11

Clinton: 37
Obama: 18
Edwards: 7
Gore: 6

Clinton: 21
Obama: 13
Edwards: 10
Gore: 16

+16

Ohio

Clinton: 38
Obama: 13
Edwards: 11

Clinton: 43
Obama: 11
Edwards: 10

Clinton: 31
Obama: 17
Edwards: 14

+12

Pennsylvania

Clinton: 37
Obama: 11
Edwards: 11

Clinton: 39
Obama: 14
Edwards: 10

Clinton:  34
Obama: 8
Edwards: 12

+5

North Carolina

Clinton: 30
Obama: 18
Edwards: 34

Clinton: 36
Obama: 19
Edwards: 31

Clinton: 22
Obama: 16
Edwards: 39

+14