Week of June 16, 2006

Building Democratic momentum

Bush drag apparent in California-50 special election

Brian Bilbray might have eked out a narrow victory for Republicans in the special election in San Diego last week, but the GOP is in serious trouble as the battle to reclaim the U.S. House for Democrats escalates.

The hard-fought race between Busby and former congressman and lobbyist Brian Bilbray took place in a deep red district that, realistically, should never have been competitive for Democrats. The fact that it was in play at all, given that registered Republican voters outnumber Democrats by more than 50,000, spells trouble for Republicans going into November.

Even with the $5 million national Republicans spent on this election and the GOP Hill staffers sent to turn out their conservative base, the Republican candidate barely eked out a 5,000-vote victory. Bilbray underperformed Bush by five percent in a district that gave 55 percent of its vote to Bush in the 2004 presidential election.

Make no mistake: Republicans have no cause to celebrate. Bush's horrible approval ratings are clearly taking their toll when the Republican candidate in a right-wing bastion like San Diego can't even reach 50 percent. If Republican House candidates in more marginal seats underperform to this degree in November, Republicans will lose control of the House.

But winning back the House in 2006 ultimately rests on a strong, nimble field operation. Republicans understand this, which is why they put congressional business on hold to send staffers to San Diego last week. If Democrats are going to take back control of the U.S. House, we need to match them on the ground. And EMILY's List's WOMEN VOTE!® project is a critical part of Democrats' ground operation.

In the summer of 2006, we find ourselves operating on a larger playing field, with more opportunities to elect pro-choice Democratic women to the U.S. House than we anticipated in January 2005. A chart from the June 7 Cook Political Report listed more than 30 Republican-held House seats that are considered competitive in November. If the Republican candidates in some of these seats perform five points below Bush's 2004 vote, as Bilbray did, they will fall below 50 percent and Democrats will take over the House. Pro-choice Democratic women are running in four of the six "Republican toss-up" seats and six of 18 "Lean Republican" seats.

There will be no easy victories. But EMILY's List is committed to helping these women raise enough money to compete with their better-funded Republican opponents.

Francine Busby may have lost her June 6 special election ... but Democrats are winning the war to take back the House in November. If we can come this close in races like this one, with your continued support, we can win back control of our government in November by empowering outstanding candidates and mobilizing voters who will help elect our pro-choice Democratic women candidates to office up and down the ticket.

Latest POP victories

EMILY's List's Political Opportunity Program (POP) helps pro-choice Democratic women build winning campaigns for state and local office. On June 6, 15 POP-supported candidates won primary elections in California and Montana. Here are just two highlights:

California Secretary of State:

For the first time since 1998, California will have a pro-choice Democratic woman running as the nominee for statewide office in November! State Senator Debra Bowen's primary victory is great news for Democrats, as she is an excellent candidate who is well-positioned to beat the sitting Republican Secretary of State, Bruce McPherson. First elected to the state legislature in 1992, Bowen has been a champion for government reform, consumer protection and privacy rights, environmental conservation, and open government.

Bowen earned a broad range of endorsements, including the California Labor Federation, California League of Conservation Voters, State Building and Construction Trades Council, California NOW, Senate leader Don Perata, and Speaker of the Assembly Fabian Núñez.

California State Assembly District 18:

Mary Hayashi defeated the current Alameda Fire Chief in this open Democratic seat, and looks all but assured of becoming the first Korean-American elected to the California State Assembly. She has the support of SEIU, the Planned Parenthood Golden Gate Action Fund, and the California Federation of Teachers.

Hayashi is the founder and president of the Iris Alliance Fund, a children's mental health foundation, and serves as a commissioner on the California Mental Health Services Oversight and Accountability Commission. She was also the Chairperson of Planned Parenthood Political Action Fund and a board member of the National Breast Cancer Coalition. Hayashi advises top policymakers, from Sacramento to Washington, D.C. working to give the underserved a voice in critical health debates. And she has built unprecedented partnerships to create financial support for essential health care services, including over $10 million in national health cooperative agreements with organizations such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Click here to see the full list of June 6 POP victories.

Candidate spotlight - Nikki Tinker

Voters in Tennessee's ninth district have been represented by Rep. Harold Ford -- first Senior, then Junior -- for more than 30 years. Now that Ford, Jr., is running for the U.S. Senate, this Democratic House seat is open and 22 candidates are vying for the privilege of replacing him in Congress.

The only woman in the Democratic primary is attorney Nikki Tinker. Tinker, who managed Ford's last two campaigns, brings to the field a unique blend of business savvy and personal values. She was raised by two strong women, her mother and grandmother. The family's priorities were always clear. "My grandmother had a ninth-grade education and 12 children and she made sure every one of them started college," Tinker says. "In my family, the question wasn't whether you were going to college, it was where."

Today Tinker is an attorney with experience representing both plaintiffs and defendants, mostly in business matters. But she spends more of her time right now preparing for the August 3 Democratic primary, just seven weeks from now.

EMILY's List spoke with Tinker recently about her campaign for Congress and what motivates her to run. Click here to read the interview.