December 2002

The 2002 Election

Historic gubernatorial wins, Pelosi victory offset congressional losses

With strong support from EMILY's List members, pro-choice Democratic women won tough races for governor in Michigan, Arizona, and Kansas in the 2002 elections, bringing the number of women governors to an all-time high of six and providing a bright spot for Democrats in a mostly dismal election year.

Another bright spot emerged when eight-term Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) became the first woman in U.S. history to lead either party in the House. Pelosi won the post of minority leader after Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt stepped down, receiving 177 votes to 29 for Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.

Pelosi's strength in part derives from the number of women in the Democratic caucus, which has grown from only 12 when she was first elected to Congress in 1987 to 41 today.

"Nancy is a gifted legislative tactician and political leader who has proven her commitment to the Democratic party," says Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY's List. "She has promised to provide more aggressive leadership on Democratic issues. I know nothing will re-energize the base more than seeing Nancy in action as minority leader of the House."

Democratic women win in GOP strongholds

In Michigan, Attorney General Jennifer Granholm defeated GOP Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus 51 to 47 percent, becoming the state's first woman governor and the first Democrat elected in over a dozen years. Granholm withstood withering assaults from Posthumus and the GOP in the final days; their tactics, described by former Republican Gov. William Milliken as "race-baiting … morally wrong, and politically stupid," were even denounced in a Detroit News editorial after the paper had endorsed Posthumus.

So determined were Michigan Republicans to derail Granholm's candidacy that they passed a law late one night at the end of the 2001 legislative session to limit EMILY's List's ability to raise contributions for Granholm's campaign. Their attempt to change the rules for their own political gain backfired, making EMILY's List members in Michigan and across the country even more determined to help Granholm win first a contested primary and then the general election.

"When Michigan Republicans tried to keep EMILY's List out of the governor's race, I promised we would do everything we could to help Jennifer Granholm become Michigan's first woman governor," said Malcolm. "I saw that promise fulfilled the day after the election, when the Detroit Free Press announced in two-inch type, 'SHE'S THE BOSS.'"

Granholm's victory is good news for Democrats going into a presidential election cycle. Governors play a key organizing role in presidential campaigns, and Michigan is a major battleground state. Granholm will get superior organizing help from Michigan's junior senator, Debbie Stabenow, who won with support from EMILY's List in 2000.

The last time Arizona elected a Democratic governor, Janet Napolitano, the state's attorney general, was still in school. In November, Napolitano bested U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon by a one-point margin (46 to 45 percent) in this traditionally Republican state by emphasizing her efforts to crack down on corporate fraud and by appealing to suburban voters, especially women. Napolitano took public financing in her campaign, which precluded EMILY's List from recommending her to members for financial support; however, EMILY's List endorsed her and made several sizable contributions to the Arizona Democratic Party. The party developed a comprehensive get-out-the-vote program, including a sophisticated absentee ballot plan that helped put Napolitano over the top.

Moderate Kansans propelled Kathleen Sebelius to victory over her extremely conservative GOP opponent, state Treasurer Tim Shallenburger, 53 to 45 percent. Kansas's second woman governor, Sebelius has a rock-solid reputation as a fiscal reformer and consumer watchdog after two terms as the state's insurance commissioner. A Democrat in a largely Republican state, Sebelius has swum against the tide before: she was one of only two Democrats to win statewide elections in 1994 amid a national GOP tidal wave.

"These incoming governors have their work cut out for them," says Malcolm. "All are inheriting budgetary nightmares during a national economic downturn. But they demonstrated to voters during their campaigns that they are tough enough and smart enough to lead their states through these and any crises."

While Democratic women candidates did well in Republican territory, they fared less well in typically Democratic states. "In governors' races, voters apparently blamed the party in charge for state budget problems, resulting in counter-intuitive results -- Democratic gubernatorial candidates lost in traditionally Democratic states and won in traditionally Republican ones," says Malcolm. Partly as a result of this phenomenon, EMILY's List candidates Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (Maryland), Shannon O'Brien (Massachusetts), and Myrth York (Rhode Island) lost their bids.

Small vote shift; seismic repercussions

In the days leading up to Nov. 5, few expected Democrats to take back the House -- but fewer still anticipated that Democrats would lose three Senate seats and, consequently, their very narrow margin of control of the Senate. House Republicans picked up at least six seats (one race remains unsettled at press time), bringing the partisan breakdown to at least 229 Republicans and 204 Democrats (Hawaii Rep. Patsy Mink's [D] seat is vacant due to her death Sept. 28).

"This was not a landslide election for the GOP," says Malcolm, noting that Republicans went from controlling 51 percent of Congress before the 2002 election to controlling 53 percent afterwards. "When control is almost evenly divided between the parties, a tiny shift can make a big difference," she says. "But while the shift is small, the repercussions will not be. We are steeling ourselves, because it's time for the right-wing and corporate sponsors of this Republican victory to cash in."

The nation's closest Democratic loss in the Senate was in Missouri, where former GOP Rep. Jim Talent defeated Sen. Jean Carnahan by one percentage point. From the day Carnahan voted against confirming John Ashcroft as attorney general, Republicans worked overtime to defeat her. In addition to four visits from Bush, five cabinet officials and numerous high-profile White House aides traveled to Missouri to boost Talent.

In the end, the Missouri election came down to turnout, which far exceeded that of the 1998 mid-term election. Carnahan won big in St. Louis and Kansas City, but could not offset Republican strength in conservative rural and exurban areas, which boosted Talent to a narrow victory. Amazingly, Carnahan's losing bid ended up earning 80,000 more votes than GOP Sen. Kit Bond's victory in 1998.

Bush brought equal pressure to bear in GOP-strong New Hampshire, where Gov. Jeanne Shaheen lost to GOP Rep. John Sununu in one of the country's four closest Senate races. Bush campaigned for Sununu twice in the last four weeks of the campaign. While Shaheen ran what was widely regarded as a superior campaign, she was hampered by the tax issue, always a potent one in notoriously tax-averse New Hampshire. Though as governor Shaheen held the line on taxes, Republicans relentlessly linked her to the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, whose platform included an income tax. Polls in the final weeks showed a virtual dead heat, but Bush's visits and the emphasis on taxes proved fateful for Shaheen when undecided voters broke in the last few days for Sununu.

Maine Senate candidate Chellie Pingree, who wrote the state's groundbreaking prescription drug law, looked like a strong challenger to GOP Sen. Susan Collins -- until Collins neutralized Pingree's signature issue by voting for a weak prescription drug alternative bill backed by the pharmaceutical industry. Pingree was never able to get any traction against Collins after that; several Bush visits during the campaign solidified Collins's strength against Pingree.

"As disappointed as we are over these losses, EMILY's List members can be proud of the campaigns our women ran and the issues they emphasized," says Malcolm. "Our support helped them fight back against months of relentless Republican attacks."

No competition in the House

Congressional redistricting has historically created significant turnover in the House, but those in control of the process in 2002 essentially devised a national incumbent protection plan, creating mostly seats that are safe for one party or the other and leaving only a handful of truly competitive seats in the middle. After the results were tallied, only 49 seats were won in serious contests (one in which the victor earns 55 percent or less of the vote). In other words, nearly 90 percent of House winners cruised to victory with more than 55 percent of the vote.

"There are very few marginal House seats left for the parties to fight over," Malcolm says. "For the foreseeable future, most House races will be decided in party primaries."

EMILY's List added two new women to the U.S. House in the 2002 election cycle. In June 2001, California Rep. Diane Watson won a special election to replace the late Rep. Julian Dixon, securing a safe Democratic seat; in March 2002, Linda Sanchez won a competitive primary in another safe Democratic seat in California, coasting to victory in the general election. Every EMILY's List incumbent was re-elected in the general election for the fourth straight election cycle, including Indiana Rep. Julia Carson, whom the GOP had targeted for defeat.

EMILY's List's remaining House candidates ran competitive campaigns up until the very end, but were ultimately swamped by Republican and special interest spending. For example, in Iowa's second district, Julie Thomas was running strong against Rep. Jim Leach; but the National Republican Congressional Committee made an emergency investment of $2 million to protect the vulnerable incumbent. In Indiana's second congressional district, Jill Long Thompson stayed nearly dead even with GOP businessman Chris Chocola through a heavy round of attacks from special interest groups like the Club for Growth and three visits from President Bush -- including one the last week of the race where Bush referred to Thompson as "shrill." In the end, both these races were among the handful decided by a narrow margin -- but unfortunately, the decision came down on the wrong side for Democrats.

EMILY's List's state legislative program yields results

While women made fewer gains at the national level, EMILY's List's state legislative training program was a tremendous success in its first cycle, a promising harbinger for future elections. Through this program, EMILY's List trained 958 staff and women candidates in 23 states and provided support to state organizations that help elect pro-choice Democratic women, like WIN List in Georgia and Lillian's List in North Carolina. In the general election, 86 of the 164 pro-choice Democratic women EMILY's List supported for state office -- 52 percent --won. In Georgia, where the Democratic governor and senator lost, seven women running with support from WIN List won seats in the state legislature. In North Carolina, seven of the eight challengers Lillian's List supported won seats in the legislature, bringing the total number of Democratic women in the state assembly to 22.

"We worked closely with WIN List, Lillian's List, and other state organizations to help women win," says Malcolm. "Our hats are off to them for achieving such impressive successes in a year when so many Democrats were defeated in their states."

2002 Post-election editorial

Like you, I am horrified and deeply anxious about the impact of the Nov. 5 election. But with all the Democratic hand-wringing and GOP victory-dancing going on, you might think the election was a Republican tidal wave.

It wasn't.

It's important not to confuse the results of the election with its outcome. To get some perspective, consider this: in 1994, Republicans picked up 52 House seats and eight Senate seats. This year, Republicans picked up only six House seats and two Senate seats.

Theirs is a victory with tremendous repercussions, but it by no means signifies that the vast majority of the nation's voters have turned rightward. Quite the contrary: the nation is still essentially divided. If Democrats nationwide had gotten 94,000 more votes, we would control both the House and the Senate. And most Americans live in states with Democratic governors.

So yes, the outcome of the election is disappointing, but not because Republicans won in a landslide; they didn't. What is devastating is that they now have total control of the federal government. Voters did not give Republicans a mandate to enact a conservative agenda, but I have no illusions that they will try!

I am deeply worried that an unchecked Republican government will inflict serious, long-term damage to women's rights, the economy, the environment, the social safety net -- in short, every aspect of our lives. Buckle your seatbelts. Remember how it was before Jim Jeffords left the GOP? It's going to be all that and more come January. Bush believes he has a mandate, and beyond collaborating with a Republican Congress to enact restrictions on choice, approve conservative judicial nominees, and more, he can use his executive powers to undo regulations with virtually no oversight from Congress.

We face a very difficult political future. But it's not the first time. I remember all too vividly our horror when Newt Gingrich and the Republicans took over the Congress in 1994. EMILY's List fought back then by launching WOMEN VOTE!, vastly expanding our training program, and electing 28 pro-choice Democratic women to the House and Senate over the past four elections.

I'm sure the Republicans, giddy from their electoral success, will set their sights on the most authentic and powerful voices challenging their agenda: our elected pro-choice Democratic women. They will go into every House race with a new determination to keep Nancy Pelosi from becoming Speaker. They will look at Senate races in 2004 and dream of defeating Sens. Barbara Mikulski, Patty Murray, and Barbara Boxer.

But EMILY's List members have a better idea. We will marshall our resources, our contributions, and our votes to fight back against the far right and elect a progressive Democratic majority, with our pro-choice Democratic women in the lead.

I can already feel the energy of better ideas and programs emerging at EMILY's List after the 2002 election. We envision expanding our program to bring women into the political process at the state and local levels. We envision using the foundation of WOMEN VOTE! to build a progressive political force in the states. We are determined to find ways to turn citizens who stay home on election day -- unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of those eligible to vote -- into voters who feel a stake in and a responsibility for our democracy.

As I have often mentioned, social change is a constant process of "leaping and creeping": a big leap forward, a period of slow progress, and a constant commitment for those of us who care about progressive values.

We feel motivated by the results of this election to move forward to victory in the next. And as I look at the Republican agenda I know one thing with absolute certainty: this is not the time to stop. It is the time to start.

EMILY's List training in South Dakota

Bringing voter registration to the reservations

In mid-June 2002, more than 25 women activists from the Yankton, Pine Ridge, Lower Brule, Cheyenne River, Standing Rock, Flandreau Santee, Sisseton-Wahpeton, Oglala and Crow Creek Sioux tribes gathered at the Thunderstik Lodge in Chamberlain, South Dakota, to learn from EMILY's List how to register and mobilize voters.

Native Americans represent about 8.9 percent of South Dakota's voting population, but only about three percent of those eligible to vote typically turn out. Between July and October 2002, with support from EMILY's List, the South Dakota Democratic party registered 4,000 Native American voters.

These efforts paid off. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson was 3,000 votes behind GOP Rep. John Thune late election night, with the only ballots left to be counted from the Pine Ridge Reservation. On the strength of the Native American vote, Johnson caught up, ultimately winning by 524 votes.

"Was it the air? Was it the water? Was it EMILY's List?" asked Gloria Hart of the training seminar. "Whatever it was that brought us all together to commit to this most worthy of causes, I thank my relatives that have gone before me for the tenacity and audacity, sometimes under the threat of death, to insist on being who we are…keepers of the land and traditions that make us unique in this universe."