December 2003
Groundbreaking poll provides blueprint for defeating Bush
EMILY's List's most recent Women's Monitor shows that women voters, who form a significant portion of the Democratic base and of persuadable targets, could very well determine the outcome of the 2004 election. The poll also shows serious cracks in President George W. Bush's support heading into the re-election year.
According to the Women's Monitor, Bush leads an unnamed, generic Democrat in a head-to-head match-up by only five points, 44 to 39 percent, with 14 percent of voters undecided. True to form, women favor the Democratic candidate, while men favor Bush, creating an 18-point gender gap.
Conducted August 15 – September 3 for EMILY's List by Garin-Hart-Yang Strategic Research, the Monitor surveyed 3,827 voters (2,022 women, 1,805 men; margin of error ±1.5 percent).
The Women's Monitor also found a significant bloc of voters who say they are not currently voting for the Democrat, but could be persuaded. Fully 18 percent of the electorate are Bush/undecided voters who say there is a fair chance that they will vote for the Democrat -- nearly twice the number of persuadable voters available to Republicans (10 percent). The majority (55 percent) of these Democratic persuasion targets are women. And women voters make up almost two-thirds (64 percent) of get-out-the-vote targets -- solidly Democratic voters who need to be mobilized for Democrats to win. African-American voters account for 27 percent of Democratic GOTV targets, Hispanic voters for 10 percent.
"Clearly, women voters form the bedrock of the Democratic vote," says Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY's List. "They are a solid majority of our base and a critical part of our ‘get-able' voters. Republicans and Democrats are going to work hard to court women, which is good news for the issues we care about."
Democrats need women to win
"The gender gap is still very much a part of the political story in America," says Karen White, EMILY's List's political director. At 18 points, the gap measured by this Women's Monitor is comparable with the 1996 (17 points) and 2000 (22 points) presidential elections. Voting differences between women and men are most pronounced among highly educated voters; in fact, women with advanced degrees have become one of the Democratic Party's most reliable voting blocs, along with union and African-American voters.
However, the gender gap is smaller among voters who did not go past high school, pointing to a continuing need for the WOMEN VOTE! project to address the concerns of women without college degrees. And while women on the whole lean Democratic, the party is not performing at its peak among women in small towns and rural areas, Hispanic women, white married mothers, and women between the ages of 45 and 54.
"Now we're cross-referencing what we know about these women voters with demographic and lifestyle information, so that we can create tailored WOMEN VOTE! communications strategies that will mobilize them to vote, and vote Democratic, on election day," says White. "The more we learn, the better we can design a WOMEN VOTE! project that will show how voting can make a difference in women's lives."
It's still the economy
The economy is voters' top issue concern and, with nearly half the electorate unhappy with Bush's economic agenda, a real liability for the GOP. Interestingly, 16 percent of the electorate disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy but are either undecided about the presidential election or weakly supportive of Bush. These voters are pessimistic about their own economic prospects, distrustful of politicians, and largely unaware of political news. They could be persuaded to vote Democratic, but will have to be reassured that doing so will not compromise national security.
Groundbreaking technique yields richer body of knowledge
Since 1996, Democrats have relied on EMILY's List's Women's Monitor to gauge the mood of the electorate, women in particular. This Monitor is larger in breadth and scope -- the number of respondents is more than three times the average number surveyed in past Monitors -- and promises to be even more useful.
The large sample size makes it possible to analyze the data using segmentation analysis, a marketing tool used often in business, rarely in politics. Using this technique, EMILY's List pollsters Geoff Garin and Molly O'Rourke created model clusters of voters based on similarities in values and behaviors.
"We're evaluating voters not just in terms of their gender, race, income, or political affiliation," says O'Rourke. "We're also looking at what they care about, how they get information, and what motivates them politically. Doing so allows us to create profiles of voters who are linked in more meaningful ways than demographics, and to develop far more effective and efficient strategies to reach those most likely to vote Democratic."
Creating the clusters
The clusters were developed using attitudinal and lifestyle measures like respondents' assessments of their own financial situation, the concerns that dominate their everyday lives, how attuned they are to politics, and whether they feel voting matters.
"We asked where they get their political information, and to what degree they pay attention to politics," says O'Rourke. "Do they feel economically secure, or are they living from paycheck to paycheck? What issues do they consider when they are making decisions about voting?"
These voter profiles will help shape the get-out-the-vote efforts of EMILY's List and allied progressive organizations on behalf of women candidates and Democrats up and down the ticket -- including the Democratic presidential nominee.
"Once we've identified the clusters, we can determine which groups to target with persuasion messages to convince them to vote Democratic, which groups are solidly Democratic but must be convinced to vote -- and which groups to leave alone (hard-core Republicans)," says White. "We have more work to do, but already we can see that women will be critical players in the effort to defeat Bush and elect pro-choice Democratic women."
Who are these voters?
This ongoing analysis has already yielded several clusters of key voters. For example, Garin and O'Rourke have identified one cluster they call "College-Educated Progressives." Representing nine percent of the electorate, this is the most Democratic segment in terms of party identification (68 percent Democratic, 11 percent Republican). Voters in this cluster, primarily women, are overwhelmingly pro-choice, favor gun safety measures, and support affirmative action policies. They are fairly diverse (16 percent African American) and while they tend to be better off financially, their affinity for Democrats is based more on social than economic policies.
"As far as I know, this is the first time an EMILY's List poll has identified a cluster of voters who so closely resemble our members," Malcolm says.
Garin notes that this cluster comprises dedicated voters who do not need to be persuaded or mobilized to vote Democratic. "Democrats should tap into this group as a rich source of volunteer and financial support for progressive candidates and causes," he says.
The Monitor also identified clusters of solidly Republican voters, including "Social Conservatives" and "Secular Conservatives." This last is the least diverse cluster, a group comprising mostly men who follow the news avidly. They are base Republican voters, 82 percent of whom plan to vote for Bush. They are more likely to be college-educated than Social Conservatives. While they, too, approve of a conservative social agenda, that's not what drives them to participate in elections. These groups are unreachable for Democrats and not worth contacting.
According to Garin, the Monitor measured one key difference between Democratic and Republican base voters: the degree to which they are supportive of their presidential candidate. "Bush is closer to getting 100 percent of GOP base voters," Garin says. "We aren't quite there yet. Getting there will make the difference for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004."
The next steps
The clusters are being analyzed according to political, census, financial, lifestyle, and voting history information available through the Democratic National Committee's database of 150 million voters, informally known as "Demzilla."
"Through the Women's Monitor, EMILY's List has identified the voters who will decide the 2004 election," says Malcolm. "Now we're learning everything we can about our persuasion and mobilization targets -- pinpointing the issues they care about, the sources they trust, and the media they listen to. We'll use this information to construct a state-of-the-art WOMEN VOTE! project -- and, by sharing this information with our progressive allies, EMILY's List will help Democrats develop a comprehensive national voter contact strategy that will mobilize our voters and send George W. Bush and his extremist allies back where they came from.
What's Cooking?
Political news from Washington and around the country
South Dakota native Stephanie Herseth is taking another shot at the state's lone House seat ... Herseth ran a close race against the sitting governor, Republican Bill Janklow, in 2002 ... now Janklow faces second-degree manslaughter charges after a fatal collision with a motorcyclist last August ... a Sioux Falls Argus Leader/KELO-TV poll shows Herseth with a commanding lead, but political insiders warn not to underestimate the indomitable Janklow, a four-term governor.
The GOP is still struggling to put up that big tent ... the White House is urging state parties to choose more minority delegates for the 2004 convention ... according to the Chicago Tribune, the chair of the Illinois GOP told central committee members, "I want you looking amongst women, African-Americans, Latinos, (the) Jewish community" ... the House Republican conference is holding seminars on working with minority media and reaching out to black churches ... but there's always someone who didn't read the memo ... Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo recently called for a rule to abolish the 32-year-old Congressional Black Caucus, along with the Hispanic and Asian-Pacific Caucuses.
Here's what GOP Rep. George Nethercutt, the White House's recruit to run against Sen. Patty Murray, had to say about media coverage of the war in Iraq, as reported in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer: "So the story is better than we might be led to believe in the news ... it's a bigger and better and more important story than losing a couple of soldiers every day...." predictably, Nethercutt was excoriated for his remarks ... an angry Nethercutt bought ads in four papers denouncing the Seattle Post-Intelligencer for reporting his words ... guess he forgot the old adage, "never pick a fight with folks who buy ink by the barrel" ... the White House is sticking by their guy, foot in mouth and all ... Bush even dispatched political guru Karl Rove to raise funds for Nethercutt.
Pro-choice Democratic women in the Senate fought valiantly against a GOP ban on certain abortion procedures that are often the only way to preserve a woman's fertility ... California Sens. Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein led the charge ... " I would have more respect and admiration for my friends on the other side if they just said, ‘let's just ban abortion,'" Boxer said ... all EMILY's List senators voted against the bill, which passed the Senate 64-34 ... Bush signed the bill in November flanked by its sponsors, all men ... the White House PR machine must have been broken that day ... the photo looked like a meeting of the Good Old Boys' Club.
Good news for Florida Senate candidate Betty Castor ... Democratic Sen. Bob Graham announced his retirement, opening his seat up for successors ... Castor's campaign released a poll showing her ahead of all Democrats ... Castor also has the highest favorability rating ... Florida's primary is August 31 ... the list of Republican wannabes reads like a Who's Who of Florida's right wing.
The religious right has had its knickers in a twist ever since the Supreme Court overturned a Texas law banning sodomy in June ... now Republicans are using homophobia to mobilize evangelical voters on behalf of Bush in 2004 ... The Nation says the Rev. Jerry Falwell, who blamed "the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians" for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, has promised to devote "all his time and energy" to fighting gay marriage ... with Falwell thus distracted, feminists, pagans, and abortion rights supporters are apparently free to run about willy-nilly.
Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch is sponsoring a bill to allow foreign-born Americans to run for president ... Hatch says it's not due to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's victory in California ... Orrin may hatch a big old Canadian goose-egg when he realizes his bill would open the door for dynamic Jennifer Granholm, Michigan's Democratic governor, whose presidential panache has not gone unnoticed ... born in Canada, Granholm moved to the U.S. when she was four ... when Granholm wins that race, we can call her "Conan the Canadian."
Looks like Missouri is in for another hot Senate race ... the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a poll showing state Treasurer Nancy Farmer running dead even with GOP Sen. Kit Bond among voters familiar with both candidates ... Bush must be worried about Missouri ... he helped Bond raise over $1 million in August.
Another promising Senate opportunity in South Carolina ... state Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum is the strongest Democrat to hold an open seat ... Tenenbaum's biggest roadblock to the nomination, Columbia Mayor Bob Coble, dropped out and endorsed her ... Tenenbaum was the top vote-getter statewide in 1998 and 2002 ... a poll for the DSCC shows her leading top Republicans by double digits ... Democratic Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings is retiring.
When California Rep. Cal Dooley hired Lisa Quigley, she was the youngest chief of staff on the Hill ... now Dooley is retiring, and Quigley is running for his seat ... it's strongly Democratic, so the race will be decided in the March 2 primary ... she has her old boss's strong endorsement -- as well as EMILY's.
Big wins in off-year elections
EMILY's List celebrates victories in New York, Virginia, New Jersey
Pro-choice Democratic women ran and won key 2003 elections with vital help from Campaign Corps, a project of EMILY's List, and the EMILY's List Political Opportunity Program.
In New York City, strategic and financial support from EMILY's List helped political newcomer Annabel Palma secure a seat on the New York City Council. Palma trounced a former city councilman in the August primary 66 to 34 percent.
Palma faced only token opposition in November's general election and will take office in January.
"Palma's victory demonstrates perfectly how EMILY's List can identify a candidate who has the potential to move up," says Kate Coyne-McCoy, POP regional director. "That's what this program is all about: finding promising women candidates with long-term potential."
The first class of Campaign Corps graduates made their way back to Washington, D.C., in November, most after working on legislative races in Virginia and New Jersey. Among the winners whose staff included Campaign Corps graduates was Ellen Karcher of New Jersey, whose victory over the GOP president of the Senate helped Democrats take control. Other victorious Campaign Corps candidates include Virginia state Sens. Linda "Toddy" Puller and Janet Howell, Virginia Del. Kris Amundson, and New Jersey Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein.
After election day, EMILY's List brought the exhausted group back to Washington to debrief and hunt for jobs. Thanks to their outstanding training and campaign experience, nine staffers were quickly snapped up by 2004 campaigns, including the Kerry and Gephardt presidential campaigns, Tom Daschle for U.S. Senate (S.D.), Inez Tenenbaum for U.S. Senate (S.C.), and Lisa Quigley (Calif.) and Patsy Keever (N.C.) for U.S. House.
EMILY's List staff are recruiting the Campaign Corps class of 2004, who will be trained next summer and deployed to critical campaigns in the final months of the election.
Candidate spotlight - State Sen. Allyson Schwartz
Pennsylvania state Sen. Allyson Schwartz is running for that rarest of political prizes, an open swing seat in the U.S. Congress. Currently held by a Democrat, the 13th district is a prime Republican takeover target. With both parties vying for control, this is one of the most competitive and costly races in the country.
The most senior woman in the state Senate, Schwartz is an expert on education and health care and a forceful advocate for Pennsylvania's children and families. If she wins, she will be the only Democratic woman in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation. EMILY's List spoke with Schwartz recently about her campaign, her career, and her goals as a congresswoman.
You founded and ran what was at that time Philadelphia's only women's health clinic. How did you go from there to politics?
As the director of that clinic, I saw the effect good and poorly run services had on troubled families. Through my experience in health care and as a mom, I knew how important it would be to provide the perspective of someone who understands the issues that working moms and families face. In 1990 I ran in a contested primary and then against a Republican incumbent. I won 50 percent in the primary against two male opponents, and defeated the Republican incumbent handily. My kids are grown now, but I'm proud that they had the experience of seeing me run for and hold public office.
Why did you decide to switch your focus from state to federal issues? How will that affect your agenda?
Well, for example, education is a state and federal issue. I'm Democratic chair of the education committee and have worked hard to improve the quality of public education, demanding high performance from school districts and making sure we use public tax dollars wisely. The federal No Child Left Behind law does many of the same things -- but then the federal government left us behind. I agree that we have to set high expectations for children and demand high performance from schools, but we also have to actually help states meet those goals.
What will your top priorities be as a newly elected congresswoman?
Certainly education and health care. Pennsylvania is one of the first states to use cigarette taxes to help working families purchase private health insurance for their children. We've covered over 150,000 children. I led that fight.
One of my goals in Washington will be to make sure that every family can purchase private health insurance for dependents at affordable rates. We have to have a functioning private insurance marketplace that is affordable for small businesses.
How are you prepared to operate if the House remains under GOP control?
Voters want leaders who can find common ground and solutions. Republicans have controlled the state Senate for most of my time there. I've gotten things done by being clear about my goals and flexible in how I meet them, and by knowing how to work with Republicans. Occasionally that means standing firm and sometimes that means working with them to get things done.
We need more people who represent mainstream values, a moderate viewpoint. We're not seeing that from too many Republicans. We need to demand accountability for use of tax dollars -- and when Republicans are throwing money at their favorite projects with no long-term value or history of success, we need to call them on that.
Democrats are working hard to defeat Bush. What, in your view, should a Democratic president's top priorities be?
Certainly the top priority has to be national security. We have to repair the damage this president has done to our relationships with our international allies; support developing democracies; and help to protect human rights and safety around the world.
Jobs and economic development are keenly important. We need to put people back to work by creating 21 st century jobs. We can't keep putting this country in enormous debt. We have to be far more fiscally responsible than this administration and make necessary investments to stimulate growth in hi-tech industries.
Also, health care will continue to be a huge issue. And part of the health care debate is choice. We may have the opportunity to select Supreme Court replacements who represent our American sense of justice and fairness -- and that includes protecting the right to privacy in reproductive rights.