March 2005

Getting off to a strong start

2006 races taking shape early

With off-year elections in November 2005 and races for 2006 already taking shape, EMILY's List is eagerly evaluating opportunities to elect pro-choice Democratic women, recruiting strong candidates, and helping them build winning campaigns.

"From where we sit now, the prospect of adding new women this cycle is promising," says Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY's List. "Our political staff is closely examining the electoral map. We're evaluating seats at every level and looking for viable women candidates who are willing to throw themselves into one of life's biggest challenges: running a campaign."

Protecting our gains

EMILY's List's top priority is helping pro-choice Democratic women incumbents prepare for tough re-election battles. "Some women were barely sworn in before they had to start running for re-election," says Malcolm.

In fact, U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean of Illinois, who defeated the longest-serving House Republican in November, was attacked by the National Republican Congressional Committee even before she took the oath of office. Bean became the GOP's number one target for defeat when she ousted incumbent Phil Crane in a GOP-leaning district. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, embarrassed by this dramatic loss in his home state, is actively seeking potential challengers to Bean.

"Ambitious Republicans have waited 35 years for Phil Crane to retire," says Malcolm. "Melissa Bean has done the heavy lifting by defeating him in 2004; now they are salivating over the chance to challenge her."

Another top GOP target is Pennsylvania Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who holds one of the few swing seats remaining in the U.S. Congress. Schwartz ran a smart campaign against a wealthy opponent in 2004, a presidential year when turnout was particularly high. With GOP Sen. Rick Santorum, the Senate's leading opponent of abortion rights, up for re-election in 2006, Pennsylvanians are once again in for a barn-burning campaign season. A strong victory for Schwartz in this suburban Philadelphia district will be vital to Democratic hopes of defeating Santorum.

"Bean and Schwartz have the experience and the skills to draw attention to the issues that truly affect the lives of working Americans, like education and health care," says Malcolm. "EMILY's List is committed to helping these women keep their seats."

Four pro-choice Democratic women senators are up for re-election in 2006: Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), Maria Cantwell (Wash.), and Debbie Stabenow (Mich.). Republicans would love to oust all of them and secure a filibuster-proof Senate -- but Cantwell and Stabenow, who narrowly defeated GOP incumbents in 2000, are particularly attractive targets on the Republican hit list.

A skilled environmental champion, Cantwell is fighting to protect pristine public land from development and stands firmly against the administration's proposal to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration. Republicans are especially irked by Cantwell's success in battling Bush's ultra-conservative judicial nominees.

Stabenow's aggressive efforts to enact a meaningful prescription drug benefit, while earning her the enmity of the pharmaceutical industry, led Senate Democrats to name her chair of their health care task force. She is the third-highest ranking member of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

Potential challengers to Stabenow include Jane Abraham, the wife of former Sen. Spencer Abraham, whom Stabenow defeated in 2000. Jane Abraham is a political activist in her own right who helped found the Susan B. Anthony List, which patterns itself after EMILY's List but supports only anti-choice candidates. To challenge Cantwell, Republicans would love to recruit former state Sen. Dino Rossi, who narrowly lost to EMILY's List-backed Christine Gregoire in Washington's close governor's race. Rossi is still fighting his 129-vote loss to Gregoire, but could pivot quickly to transform his gubernatorial operation into a Senate campaign.

"Bush and his political Svengali, Karl Rove, would love nothing more than to remove these pro-choice Democratic women from the Senate and replace them with right-wing clones who will rubberstamp their radical agenda," says Malcolm. "Making sure Cantwell and Stabenow have the resources they need to compete with all-out GOP assaults is one of our top priorities."

In addition to protecting congressional incumbents, EMILY's List is keeping a close eye on incumbent Govs. Janet Napolitano of Arizona, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, and Jennifer Granholm of Michigan.

Faced with the prospect of defeating both Granholm and Stabenow, Michigan and national Republicans are courting viable challengers, preferably with personal fortunes to spend. Republicans have promised to attack both pro-choice Democratic women on the "moral issues" they believe helped re-elect Bush in 2004.

In spite of voting for Democratic nominees John Kerry and Al Gore in the last two presidential elections, Michigan remains fertile territory for far-right radicalism. Billionaires Dick and Betsy DeVos, heirs to the Amway fortune, have given millions to right-wing causes, including anti-choice groups; husband and wife have each been mentioned as potential challengers for Stabenow and/or Granholm (at this point, Dick appears likely to seek the governor's seat; Betsy, former chair of the state GOP, has not articulated her plans).

"Republicans aren't wasting any time -- so neither can we," says Malcolm. "It's absolutely critical that we get out early and help these women gather resources to withstand the GOP money machine."

Bringing new women into politics

EMILY's List is also pursuing an aggressive strategy to expand women's power at the state and local levels through our Political Opportunity Program (POP). The training and technical services POP provides give women the skills they need to move up the political ladder -- as well as having an immediate impact on policy at the state level, where decisions are made that affect millions of lives.

In 2004, POP candidates helped Democrats take control of six legislative chambers, including the Colorado House and the Oregon Senate. In February, pro-choice Democratic women in the Colorado House short-circuited legislation that might have outlawed abortions as early as six weeks. And in Oregon, a bill to require contraceptive coverage is finally making headway. Oregon Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown supported the proposal 12 years ago as a representative; now that she is the highest ranking woman in the Senate, the bill is finally moving.

"POP is filling a critical void in politics and having a massive impact on the face of power across America," says White. "We've already planned a dozen training seminars across the country -- we can barely keep up with the demand!"

POP is also helping to increase the number of women serving in key statewide constitutional offices. In 2004, EMILY's List helped elect two secretaries of state (who oversee elections): Robin Carnahan in Missouri and Deb Markowitz in Vermont. Today, POP staff is tracking more than a dozen prospective statewide candidates for 2006, a vast increase over 2004.

"We are building a political powerhouse precinct by precinct, county by county, state by state," says Malcolm. "Through POP, we're creating a grassroots foundation that will reap ample political rewards for women and Democrats. And the women we're helping to elect are safeguarding choice and creating policy that protects women and families across the U.S.A."

Promising opportunities and second chances

Florida's Republican governor, Jeb Bush, is prohibited from seeking a third term due to term limits. Minnesota Sen. Mark Dayton, a Democrat, has announced he will not seek a second term in 2006. Open statewide seats like these create a ripple effect of opportunity, as ambitious lower-level officeholders consider leaving safe seats to move up. In addition to having conversations with pro-choice Democratic women who might run for the statewide posts, EMILY's List is tracking a number of potential candidates for U.S. House seats that will likely open up as members of Congress seek higher office or retire.

"Turnover like this is the number one way to elect newcomers," says Martha McKenna, EMILY's List's director of campaign services. "It's a proven fact that open seats present the best opportunity to add new pro-choice Democratic women to Congress."

Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and Patty Wetterling, an advocate for missing children and Democratic nominee for Congress in 2004, are considering seeking the Democratic nomination for Minnesota's open Senate seat. EMILY's List staff is in contact with both women as they explore their options. Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, whom Wetterling challenged with EMILY's List support, is also running for this Senate seat, leaving his suburban St. Paul district open for takeover.

In Florida, Democratic Rep. Jim Davis's decision to run for governor has created a free-for-all among Democrats eager to nab this safely Democratic seat. Among them is Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor, a Tampa attorney. Castor's mother, Betty, received strong backing from EMILY's List as Florida's Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2004. The field is still forming in this House race, but Castor will certainly face strong competition from other eager Democrats in Florida's September 2006 primary.

In 2004, Connecticut Gov. John Rowland (R) resigned amid a burgeoning scandal. His successor, Republican Gov. Jodi Rell, has not yet declared her intentions -- but she'll face stiff competition for a full term. Connecticut is a blue state, and Democrats are eager to take over the top office after a long shut-out. Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, who received support from POP in 2004, has her eye on the race.

Pro-choice Democratic women who narrowly lost House races in 2004 are considering rematches in 2006, another promising trend EMILY's List is nurturing. Among them: Pennsylvania attorney Lois Murphy, who came within 2000 votes of defeating GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach in 2004; Westport, Connecticut, First Selectwoman Diane Farrell, who mounted a strong challenge to Republican Rep. Chris Shays; and Teresa Daly, former member of the Burnsville, Minn., city council who challenged GOP Rep. John Kline in 2004. Prominent Democrats are encouraging these rematches. "These women are veterans now; they know how to make up those last few votes and win," says McKenna.

EMILY's List is making sure that pro-choice Democratic women seek every available opportunity to run. "There are more women serving in the U.S. House today than at any point in history," says Malcolm. "And thank goodness, because women are our best defense against the right-wing assault on our values. But we have a long way to go to achieve parity. Sixty-five women out of 435 members of Congress is barely 15 percent. We can do better. EMILY's List is about putting women in power at every level to ensure that our representative democracy becomes truly representative."

What's Cooking?

His modesty is exceeded only by ... reality ... former Arizona Gov. Fife Symington (R) has resurfaced to declare his interest in torpedoing Gov. Janet Napolitano's bid for re-election in '06 ... "If I ran, I could beat her," Symington boasted ... Symington's political career ended in scandal when he was convicted of fraud in 1997... after his conviction was overturned, he abruptly switched careers and now works as a pastry chef in Phoenix, whipping up gourmet invectives to lob at Napolitano and, apparently, spoiling for a fight ... "If I get in (to the race), it's going to be guns blazing," Symington told the Arizona Republic ... Symington's confidence is belied by voters' views ... a KAET-TV/Arizona State Univ. poll conducted in late February shows Napolitano leading him by 56 points ... Symington says questions about his shady financial dealings will not influence his decision to run.

Govs. Jennifer Granholm (D-Mich.) and Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-Calif.) are the focus of a movement, "Amend for Arnold and Jen," to amend the constitution so that naturalized citizens can seek the presidency ... Granholm moved from Canada at four; Schwarzenegger famously emigrated from Austria as a young bodybuilder ... but Arnold and Jen are hardly in the same class in terms of performance ... the Government Performance Project recently issued "report cards" grading governors whose seats are up in 2006 on their states' financial situation, employee management, infrastructure, and communication with citizens ... Harvard Law grad Granholm's outstanding marks throw Schwarzenegger's below-average grades into extra-sharp relief ... with a "C," California tied for lowest ... Michigan earned a "B+" ... only one state (Virginia) received the highest grade of "A-."

As popular as she is, Granholm could face some deep-pocketed competition in 2006 ... Dick DeVos, heir to the billion-dollar Amway fortune, is considering challenging either Granholm or Sen. Debbie Stabenow ... Dick and his wife Betsy are a man-and-wife cash cow, having contributed millions to right-wing causes ... some think a DeVos campaign would be a sign of divine intervention ... "If he does decide to run, it'll be God that led him to it," one Republican supporter gushed ... in contrast to such godly sentiments, the chair of Michigan's Republican Party, Saul Anuzis, said that Republicans "smell blood" ... Republicans have promised to attack Granholm and Stabenow on "moral issues" in 2006.

There appears to be some confusion in the GOP about the First Amendment ... as the White House gets more and more desperate to win public support for its proposal to privatize Social Security, the Republican National Committee is shamelessly trying to block television ads produced by MoveOn.org critical of Bush's plan ... while no stations pulled the ad, one was intimidated enough to ask MoveOn to change the wording ... the same group that launched the infamous Swift Boat ads, USA Next, is now smearing the AARP, which opposes Bush's plans ... Bush has yet to provide Congress with specific details about his Social Security proposal ... Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) brought some much-needed rationalism to the red-hot debate: "Until we know exactly what is being proposed, it's kind of a vacuum at the moment," she said.

Maybe it's time ... according to a national poll for Hearst Newspapers, 81 percent would vote for a female presidential candidate ... 53 percent said Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) should run ... designer Marc Jacobs has created Andy Warholesque tees to show the HRC love ... Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice has supporters in the Republican camp, one of whom wrote a rock song praising her leadership skills ... all this talk of women for president signals a major shift in the political landscape ... could EMILY have had anything to do with that (wink, wink)?

EMILY's List debunks choice myth

The impact of "moral values" on voting behavior has become a centerpiece of 2004 election analyses, with conservatives, and even some Democrats, contributing to the misperception that when voters refer to "moral values," they mean reproductive rights -- thus tying the so-called "values deficit" to Democrats' support for choice.

In light of the confusion, EMILY's List thought some facts might be in order.

"We asked pollster Mark Mellman to conduct an exhaustive study of exit and post-election polling data," says Karen M. White, EMILY's List's national political director. "His analysis clearly demonstrates that choice was not a negative factor in voters' decision-making in the presidential race -- and that among the tiny fraction (six percent) of voters who do consider choice a deciding factor, the overwhelming majority pro-choice." Click here now to read the study.

In fact, contrary to those who lament Democrats' commitment to reproductive freedom, our findings lead to much more encouraging conclusions about choice and the 2004 election:

  • The issue of choice was not a driving factor in the election. Where it did play a role, it appears to have helped Democrats. When asked, voters described "moral values" as a candidate's character and decision-making process -- not his or her views on abortion or gay marriage.
  • A solid majority of Americans remain pro-choice, thereby disputing the "mandate" to dismantle a woman's right to choose often claimed by anti-choice leaders. "All the polls continue to agree that Americans want to keep abortion legal," says Mellman, whose own poll shows 58 percent want to preserve the rights outlined in Roe v. Wade.
  • Sen. John Kerry's defeat was largely due to President George W. Bush's electoral advantages, not Kerry's support for a woman's right to choose. The 2004 election turned on incumbency, the economy, Iraq, and terrorism, as well as voters' personal feelings about Bush. Gallup asked voters for the two most important factors that determined their presidential vote. Iraq (22 percent) and economic issues (16 percent) proved most decisive. In the Lake Snell Perry poll, 21 percent of voters cited personal feelings about President Bush as the most significant driver of their vote choice. Other top reasons included Iraq (10 percent), terrorism/national security (7 percent), and the economy/jobs (7 percent). The Democracy Corps poll mirrored these results, showing Iraq (20 percent), terrorism/national security (19 percent), the economy and jobs (19 percent), and moral values (19 percent) to be most salient.

"Based on this analysis, it's clear that it would be a grave mistake for Democrats to view the outcome of the 2004 election as voters' rejection of a woman's right to choose," says White. "While choice might look like a convenient scapegoat for Democratic losses, the assertion that choice led to Democratic defeat in November simply does not stand up when the data is examined."

In fact, Americans are moving toward the pro-choice view expressed in the Democratic Party platform. In a 1998 CBS News/New York Times poll, 36 percent of adults said they identified more closely with the Democratic Party's views on abortion, while 28 percent chose the GOP; a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted in February 2005 showed more voters moving into the Democratic column on this same question, with 45 percent aligning themselves with Democrats on choice and 35 percent aligning themselves with Republicans.

"Democrats can connect with voters on a moral values message because we share the values of most Americans: privacy, liberty, responsibility, and community," says White. "This reports shows how important it is for us to articulate clearly and forcefully the values that anchor our support for progressive programs and policies, from reproductive rights to economic justice to affordable health and child care.

"It also tells us that how a candidate approaches an issue is almost as important as her position on the issue," White continues, "which is why we encourage our candidates to boldly stand up for their values and explain to voters why they have come to a particular position."

EMILY's List shared the findings of this study with Democratic party leaders and pro-choice Democratic officeholders.

Right is wrong

"Women still live longer than men because their lives are easier." -- Rush Limbaugh, radio talk-show host (The Rush Limbaugh Show, 3/1/05)

"Uniquely American isn't it. I mean that is fantastic that you're doing that. Get any sleep?" -- Pres. George W. Bush, to a woman who works three jobs (whitehouse.gov, 2/4/05)

"Mr. Bush has signed more abortion related restrictions and regulations into law than any other president since the Roe decision" -- Carl Cameron, White House Correspondent (FOX News, 1/24/05)

"I can fly an F-15, put two nukes on 'em and I'll make one pass. We won't have to worry about Syria anymore." -- Cong. Sam Johnson (R-Texas), offering to personally bomb Syria for President Bush. Cong. Johnson later said he was "kind of joking." (Roll Call, 2/28/05)

"And I thought I would just share with you what science says today about silicone breast implants. If you have them, you're healthier than if you don't. That is what the ultimate science shows." -- Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), M.D., while discussing legislation to restrict class-action suits (The Washington Post, 2/7/05)

"Certain animals run around and are unpleasant, but when they've been fixed, then they are happy and sedate." -- Anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, on Democrats (The New York Times Magazine, 1/16/05)

"If you see a train wreck coming, you ought to be saying, what are you going to do about it, Mr. Congressman, or Madam Congressman?" -- Pres. George W. Bush, waxing metaphorical on Social Security (WCBS News, 2/8/05)

"This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous. Having said that, all options are on the table." -- Pres. George W. Bush (cnn.com, 2/22/05)

"They [Democrats] have turned to what might be called the ‘X-Files Wing' of the Democrat Party to make their first impression." -- House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), referring to Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D-Cal.) objection to presidential election results in Ohio (States News Service, 1/6/05)

"I hope the Supreme Court will finally read the Constitution and see there's no such thing, or no mention, of separation of church and state in the Constitution." -- House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) (UPI, 3/1/05)

"Their idea of reducing unintended pregnancies is more sex education and distribution of contraceptives. ... That's not the solution, that's part of the problem." -- Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, referring to Democratic support for family planning (Seattle Times, 3/2/05)