May 2006
Taking control in 2006
"If you look at the top Republican targets this year, the success of Democratic women candidates will be very important in determining the number of Democratic pickups." -- Amy Walter, House analyst for the Cook Political Report (New York Times, 3/24/06)
"As one outside adviser to the administration said, the danger of a Democratic takeover of at least one house of Congress looms large and would carry huge penalties for Bush. The administration fears ‘investigations of everything' by congressional committees..." -- Columnist E.J. Dionne, Jr. (Washington Post, 4/21/06)
"These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had." -- GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio on an APIpsos poll showing Democrats leading Republicans by 16 points (AP, 4/8/06)
"We know that there's a hurricane coming, and it's going to hit the Republicans in November. We're just trying to figure out how big this thing is." -- Political analyst Charlie Cook (USA Today, 4/5/06)
"By almost all polling measures, Democrats are in a significantly stronger position today than Republicans were in 1994." -- Marc Sandalow, Washington bureau chief, San Francisco Chronicle (4/4/06)
" ... the Republicans, obviously, very spooked about these upcoming midterm elections. They think they're going to get creamed in Congress and the House and the Senate. I think they're likely to." -- Conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson (MSNBC, 3/28/06)
"The only question is how high, how big, how much force it will have. I think it will be considerable." -- Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, anticipating a wave of Democratic victories in November (TIME, 4/3/06)
Momentum builds for Democrats amid promising political climate
In a political climate ripe for Democratic takeover, pro-choice Democratic women are leading a class of incredibly qualified candidates, particularly in races for the U.S. House.
"Winning back the House is within reach," says Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY's List. "It won't be easy, but at a time when Republicans and President Bush are in free fall, and with candidates of such high caliber, it's a very real possibility -- and one that gives Democrats even more momentum."
In a year of great promise, EMILY's List has recruited a top-tier roster of pro-choice Democratic women who are running in the hottest races of 2006.
"Congressional candidates from New York to California and all points in between are revved up and raring to go," says Malcolm. "This could be an historic year for women in politics."
Victory in Ohio builds momentum for November
Ohio's status as a presidential battleground state has drawn the attention of political pundits who view the 2006 election as a harbinger for 2008. Republicans hoping to keep this state in the red are beset by problems both political and ethical. Ohio's Republican governor was convicted on ethics charges and remains under investigation for shady state investments. GOP Rep. Bob Ney is knee-deep in the Abramoff scandal. Right-wing churches are under fire for actively supporting the Republican gubernatorial candidate. It's a tangled web that puts Ohio at the epicenter of GOP corruption outside the Beltway.
This is clearly a moment of opportunity for Democrats, who got a major boost May 2 with the nomination of Betty Sutton in the state's 13th district. A labor lawyer and former legislator, Sutton came in first in a field of eight with 31 percent of the vote. Her opponents for this open seat included Tom Sawyer, a former member of Congress, and Capri Cafaro, a wealthy shopping mall heiress who spent nearly $2 million of her own money on her campaign. Sutton's victory dims Republican hopes of taking over this Democratic seat in November, as she was widely viewed as the strongest Democrat to nominate.
"A few months ago, Betty Sutton was at four percent in the polls," says Malcolm. "But support from EMILY's List members and a strong WOMEN VOTE! project helped her build momentum. By one week before the election, polls showed her in a three-way tie with Cafaro and Sawyer, whose numbers remained stagnant. Betty's victory shows the power of EMILY's List to change the dynamics of a campaign."
According to Martha McKenna, EMILY's List's director of campaign services, this open seat is still on the GOP radar screen. "Their nominee is a strong fundraiser with proven bipartisan appeal," McKenna says. "But we could not ask for a better candidate than Betty Sutton, who has the skills and record to keep this must-hold seat in Democratic hands."
In Ohio's 15th district, Rep. Deborah Pryce, the highest ranking woman in the GOP House leadership, faces Mary Jo Kilroy in what many view as the toughest challenge of Pryce's career. Political analyst Charlie Cook calls Kilroy's challenge to Pryce "serious," writing in the Cook Political Report, "it's easy to see how Pryce could be a political canary in a coal mine for the fortunes of House Republicans in 2006." Pryce herself dubbed Republican disarray in her state and nationally "dreadful" and "dire."
Despite holding what Republicans view as moderate positions on social issues, Pryce has risen high in the GOP conference by sticking close to the party line on critical votes that harm working families.
Kilroy, an attorney in private practice with her husband, is a member of the Franklin County Commission and a former member of the Columbus School Board. She has a long record of upholding progressive values and longstanding support from NARAL Pro Choice America and other reproductive rights advocates. "Kilroy's campaign has put this seat in play for Democrats," says McKenna. "She's running a top notch campaign based on experience and community service. But Pryce is a rarity for Republicans: a woman in the GOP leadership. They will go to the mat to help her keep her seat."
Races take shape in Illinois
EMILY's List candidates in Illinois took a big step on March 21, when voters chose nominees for the November election. Major Tammy Duckworth won the Democratic primary for the House seat currently held by retiring anti-choice zealot Henry Hyde, while Rep. Melissa Bean learned which radically right-wing Republican would be her challenger.
Duckworth is a veteran of the Iraq war who lost her legs and shattered her arm when a grenade exploded in the helicopter she was co-piloting. A natural leader, she rallied her colleagues at Walter Reed Army Medical Hospital during her recuperation. With a master's degree in international affairs and experience in international development, Duckworth is uniquely qualified to serve in Congress. She was recruited by Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin and Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel to run for Hyde's open seat in her home district outside of Chicago.
Republicans quickly coalesced behind state Sen. Peter Roskam, once an aide to Hyde and to former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Vice President Dick Cheney hosted a fundraiser for Roskam in March, and Hyde and DeLay co-hosted one last September.
In the eighth district, Rep. Melissa Bean will face right-wing millionaire David McSweeney. GOP leaders have vowed to run a "full throttle" campaign to unseat Bean.
McSweeney spent $2.5 million from his personal fortune in the Republican primary. Despite his great personal wealth, McSweeney is included in the GOP's Retain Our Majority Program (ROMP), a fundraising effort spearheaded by DeLay that will channel even more money into McSweeney's campaign.
Roskam and McSweeney both oppose abortion even in cases of rape and incest. Both also oppose embryonic stem cell research -- not merely government funding but the actual research.
"Their views appeal to right-wing voters who decide Republican primaries," says McKenna, "but general election voters in these suburban Chicago districts have been trending Democratic. Both men will try to downplay their far-right views to appeal to a broader electorate."
Opportunity in New Jersey
Remarkably, New Jersey has not sent a pro-choice Democratic woman to Congress in over 25 years. That could change in 2006, now that Assemblywoman. Linda Stender is challenging right-wing Republican Mike Ferguson in the seventh district.
Stender is another candidate whose strength puts an otherwise safe GOP seat in play for Democrats. A former mayor of Fanwood, she served on the Union County Board of Chosen Freeholders for seven years before winning a seat in the Assembly in 2001. During years of public service, Stender has led fights to expand economic development, preserve open spaces, reduce access to ingredients used to make methamphetamine, and crack down on human trafficking.
Republicans in this district are decidedly more moderate than Ferguson, whose views match those of Roskam and McSweeney in Illinois. Like those Republicans, Ferguson opposes embryonic stem cell research. He opposes abortion even for victims of rape and incest, and supports amending the Constitution to ban all abortions. He is among the biggest recipients of campaign cash from Tom DeLay, whose PAC has given at least $54,000 to Ferguson's campaign.
National Democrats are excited about Stender's chances of defeating the far-right Ferguson -- as is EMILY's List. "Linda Stender's strength makes this a race to watch," says McKenna.
Opening in New York
Rep. John Sweeney (NY-20) went to Congress in 1999 as a moderate Republican. But somewhere along the way a new Sweeney took over -- one who has stuck with Bush 80 percent of the time since 2001. Sweeney has voted in lockstep with Republicans on cutting student loans; loosening regulations that protect workers, the environment, and consumers; and banning lateterm abortions with no exception for a woman's health.
In 2006, Sweeney faces the first serious challenge of his career from attorney Kirsten Gillibrand, a native of this Albany-based district. Gillibrand has deep roots in the Hudson Valley: her grandmother founded the Albany County Democratic Women's Club. She herself serves on the board of the Eleanor Roosevelt Legacy Committee and is founder and chair of the Women's Leadership Forum Network.
Like many House Republicans, Sweeney has used his power for personal gain. He has taken more money from special interests than any other of New York's 29 congressional representatives. Last winter he held a fundraiser at a ski resort in Park City, Utah, in the company of several lobbyists, a trip local newspaper editors labeled "grotesque." In 2004, his largest campaign expense was salary paid to a former strip club and nude juice bar owner serving as Sweeney's security detail and driver (not a luxury members of Congress typically enjoy). Sweeney has even put his wife on the payroll; she earns 10 percent of every dollar raised for his campaign, though she has no other clients or fundraising experience.
Gillibrand's aggressive campaign has thrown Sweeney off stride, and national Republicans are rallying to help him withstand her challenge. She has raised more money than Sweeney's three last challengers combined.
"Kirsten Gillibrand is a rising star running a great campaign," says McKenna. "But Sweeney's seat on the House Appropriations Committee means he can count on funding from special interests eager to keep him in the House."
Victory depends on turnout
"Who wins in 2006 depends on which party does a better job of turning out its voters," says Malcolm. "We know from our Women's Monitor that women voters prefer Democratic candidates and positions on issues. Whether they vote or not will determine whether Democrats retake Congress. Our WOMEN VOTE! strategy is to identify the key groups of women to target; develop compelling messages that will motivate them; and deliver those messages by mail, phone, radio, Internet, and in person to get them to the polls."
What made you decide to get involved in politics? When did you first consider running for office?
As far back as I can remember I've been around campaigns and candidates. My mom took me to vote with her and I was always one of those kids on the side of the road holding signs. I ran my first campaign at age six, for homecoming queen of Peewee football, and held office throughout high school, college, and law school.
Working with Harold Ford, Jr., I became familiar with the ninth district. People here know me. So when he decided to run for the Senate, I looked at the other candidates running and I thought, Congress needs someone like me. I've represented small businesses and big businesses. I've represented the indigent and poor. I also understand the needs of impoverished communities and the concerns of ordinary working people. I thought, no one is more qualified for this position than me.
How has your background shaped your perspective on the role of government and the responsibility of public service?
My mother taught me two things that I can take to Congress. The first is charity, compassion, and service to those who are least among us. The second is how to balance a checkbook. You've got to do both. We can't give away everything, but we have to help those who are out there working but cannot get ahead.
All those folks on the side of the road during Katrina who don't have anything showed America how poor people are. We are the most powerful nation in the world. We have to take care of our own.
If you could control the debate in this campaign, what would you focus on?
Without education I don't know where I'd be. Every child deserves an opportunity to meet her natural potential, but we've made promises to children we aren't fulfilling. We live in a globalized world. If we aren't teaching children to compete, we are failing them.
All of this goes back to values and what happens in the home. We have working parents facing gang violence right in their neighborhoods. I talk a lot to voters about how I was raised by a single mother who worked hard to help me get where I am and by a grandmother who depended on her Social Security check. I don't take this job lightly.
How would Democratic control change the tone and agenda in Washington?
Certainly it would be refreshing, but it's not enough to say Republicans have got it wrong. The question is, what are we going to do about it? Democrats will have an opportunity to put an agenda out on the table, but we have to decide what that agenda is. People in my district are looking for strong leaders who will stand up and say, "this is what we believe, where we are, and where we're going." If we do that, we'll get folks back.
I believe in God and family and home and church -- and we can't be afraid to say that. Republicans have taken ownership of morality and we have to take it back.
Describe the effect EMILY's List support has had on your campaign.
EMILY's List has really prepared me to run a good race. It's been great having Eureka [Gilkey, Tinker's political tracker]. People like her energy. She gives us benchmarks to reach. Of course, the financial help from EMILY's List members means a lot in this race. When you talk about buying $70,000 in TV ads per week, that's a lot of money to raise here.
Who inspires you? Why?
So many have opened doors for me, I couldn't begin to list them all. My grandmother, of course. She was blind, but that didn't stop her from teaching others to read. Every day when I got home from school, I had to read the newspaper and the Bible to my grandmother.
My mom made a lot of sacrifices for me to get into college and law school. She worked hard to make sure I had what I needed because my dad wasn't there. There are a lot of people out there doing the same for their kids.
What's Cooking
Political news from Washington and around the country
"V is for Vendetta" ... Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R) has been smarting ever since losing a battle with Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) over drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge ... now Stevens is stumping for her millionaire opponent, Mike McGavick ... Stevens held events in Anchorage, Seattle, and Tacoma denouncing Cantwell ... according to the Seattle Times, "[Cantwell's] reelection fight [seems] at times as if it's against Stevens rather than McGavick" ... in what the Washington Post called "a hissy fit," Stevens vowed to visit Washington "often" ... the Cantwell campaign's response? ... "We knew big insurance was subsidizing the McGavick campaign; now we know that big oil is, too" ... not to mention big ego.
FBI background checks aren't what they used to be ... that's one explanation for the bizarre misdeeds of Bush appointees ... and we're not even talking about Scooter Libby and Karl Rove ... the Washington Post reports that Lester Crawford, former acting head of the Food and Drug Administration, is being investigated for financial improprieties and lying to Congress ... Crawford was responsible for delaying the FDA's decision on making emergency contraception more widely available ... Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Patty Murray (Wash.) were particularly critical of Crawford, a veterinarian, for his insensitivity to women's health care ... in other news ... Bush's senior domestic advisor was caught returning shoplifted items for cash ... a 24-yearold NASA spokesman was fired after falsely claiming to be a college graduate ... this young man had been barring senior scientists from speaking or writing about climate change so he could "make the president look good" ... he also insisted that NASA add the word "theory" after every mention of the Big Bang ... and then there is the Department of Homeland Security official who was arrested for trying to seduce a 14- year-old girl on the Internet ... maybe the FBI is wiretapping the wrong phone lines!
With all the GOP heavy hitters stumping for Minnesota Rep. Mark Kennedy's U.S. Senate campaign, you'd think the White House's Golden Boy could work wonders ... but even with support from the entire GOP establishment, Kennedy barely outraised Democrat Amy Klobuchar in the last quarter ... not very impressive for a congressman who started out with $370,000 from his House campaign account and gets fundraising help from President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Rove, Speaker Dennis Hastert, and RNC Chair Ken Mehlman ... county prosecutor Klobuchar came within $20,000 of Kennedy without benefit of a fat congressional campaign account or a fleet of luminaries ... apparently Kennedy is a day late and a dollar short in more ways than one ... he often boasts that he would be the only CPA in the Senate and recently offered to help constituents during tax time ... the offer was posted on Kennedy's website April 19 ... making him two days late and more than a dollar short.
Some pundits estimate that spending by billionaire Amway scion Dick DeVos could jack up the cost of the Michigan governor's race to $100 million ... in his campaign to unseat Gov. Jennifer Granholm, DeVos has been on television since February with ads costing more than $2.5 million ... even DeVos's father admits his son takes "a little political license" in the ads ... DeVos the younger takes credit for having "turned Grand Rapids around," a feat most attribute to DeVos the elder ... political analyst Bill Ballenger said DeVos "will not be outspent" ... his spending has tightened the race ... recent polling shows he and Granholm are in a dead heat.
Don't look to Arizona Republican Mike Harris to crack down on deadbeat dads ... Harris is hoping to unseat Gov. Janet Napolitano ... the wealthy businessman dumped $100,000 into his campaign ... yet just a few months earlier, he claimed he was on the brink of bankruptcy to convince a judge to halve his child support payments ... Harris told the Arizona Daily Star that paying $1,000 per month "for one kid for a four-year marriage is pretty darn generous" ... although no longer bordering on poverty -- his company's gross sales average $18 million a year -- Harris continues to assert that the amount he pays is more than adequate ... it's "a matter of perspective," he says ... a frightening perspective for a would-be governor ... meanwhile, Napolitano is protecting reproductive rights in Arizona, vetoing three anti-choice in just one week.
It is a truth universally acknowledged that Clear Channel owns a lot of media ... but it has only recently come to light that it also owns Cong. Jim Gerlach ... when Democrat Lois Murphy's campaign sought to rent billboards from Clear Channel to demand that Gerlach return the $30,000 he's gotten from Tom DeLay's PAC, the company refused, saying "it would make Jim Gerlach mad if he saw it" ... turns out -- what a shock! -- Clear Channel is a Gerlach contributor ... no billboards for you!
Campaigning? Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays can't be bothered ... not yet, anyway ... according to the New York Times, when a resident of a senior center in Norwalk asked Shays, "Why should I vote for you instead of Diane Farrell?" Shays replied, "Come back in September" and returned to his plate of cheese and crackers ... maybe by then Shays will realize that campaigning with President Bush in a district where voters fervently disapprove of the war in Iraq is not a great re-election strategy ... "I would think Chris Shays would want George Bush to stay as far away from the fourth [district] as possible," said political columnist Stuart Rothenberg.
Drug manufacturers by day, do-gooders by night ... that's how Cong. Mike Ferguson views the pharmaceutical industry lobbyists who fund his campaigns ... "These people manufacture drugs by day, and at night they're coaching little League, volunteering in the fire departments and contributing to their communities" ... pharmaceutical companies have given over half a million dollars to Ferguson in the last five years ... voters in his district can vote for change in 2006 thanks to state Assemblywoman Linda Stender ... Stender's strength led Congressional Quarterly's CQPolitics.com to move this race out of the "Safe Republican" column.
New York GOP Rep. John Sweeney took a journey back in time to simpler days ... someone released photos of Sweeney at a Union College fraternity party, drinking a beer with the kids ... or, as one Republican county chair described it, "getting down and connecting with the students at their level" (yes, "getting down") ... Sweeney's spokeswoman assured the press, "He's been busy working on issues and taking care of things" ... voters will need more specific assurances than that come November, when they will choose between Sweeney and his Democratic challenger, attorney Kirsten Gillibrand.
Steve Kagen, who is running for the Democratic nomination in Wisconsin 8, has identified a constituency not yet represented in Congress: allergists ... "We need an Allergist [sic] in the House of Representatives -- now more than ever," Kagen wrote in an email to supporters ... "now more than ever"? ... well, Washington's pollen count is unusually high ... EMILY thinks what the House needs "now more than ever" is Nancy Nusbaum, an experienced public servant whom polls show is the strongest Democrat to defeat Wisconsin Assembly Speaker John Gard, the rightwing Republican hoping to keep this seat in the GOP's grasp.